'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

2024 US Presidential Election

US Politics

🗳️ Politics

OpenAI announces something called "GPT-4.5" or very close to it

'-4.5':6 'announc':2 'call':4 'close':9 'gpt':5 'openai':1 'someth':3

OpenAI announces something new related to Sora

'announc':2 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'sora':7

OpenAI announces something new related to Voice Engine

'announc':2 'engin':8 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3 'voic':7

OpenAI announces something new related to DALL-E

'announc':2 'dall':8 'dall-':7 'e':9 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

'altman':2 'magic/magical/etc':4 'sam':1 'say':3

OpenAI announces something new related to music generation

'announc':2 'generat':8 'music':7 'new':4 'openai':1 'relat':5 'someth':3

Immediate or scheduled public rollout (even if gradual) of Sora

'even':6 'gradual':8 'immedi':1 'public':4 'rollout':5 'schedul':3 'sora':10

'chatbot':6 'gpt2':5 'gpt2-chatbot':4 'mention':2 'someon':1

Update on the partnership with Figure/humanoid robots

'figure/humanoid':6 'partnership':4 'robot':7 'updat':1

OpenAI announces an improvement to GPT-4 similiar to GPT-4-Turbo, which is not major enough to be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5

'-4':7,11 '-4.5':22 '-5':25 'announc':2 'call':20 'enough':17 'gpt':6,10,21,24 'improv':4 'major':16 'openai':1 'similiar':8 'turbo':12

Temporary technical issues (e.g. mic, presentation, lights, ..., not working)

'e.g':4 'issu':3 'light':7 'mic':5 'present':6 'technic':2 'temporari':1 'work':9

Actual presentation (person talking, video, ...) starts before 10:05 AM

'05':9 '10':8 'actual':1 'person':3 'present':2 'start':6 'talk':4 'video':5

"Regulation" is mentioned, in a legal/policy context

'context':7 'legal/policy':6 'mention':3 'regul':1

A tangible product/device is demonstrated

'demonstr':5 'product/device':3 'tangibl':2

Someone from another (not OAI) company joins on stage

'anoth':3 'compani':6 'join':7 'oai':5 'someon':1 'stage':9

Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity Steering Committee mentioned

'authent':6 'coalit':1 'committe':8 'content':3 'mention':9 'proven':4 'steer':7

'mention':3 'partnership':2 'stackoverflow':1

'competitor':3 'googl':1 'mention':4 'search':2

Any mention of the redirect from chat.openai.com to chatgpt.com

'chat.openai.com':7 'chatgpt.com':9 'mention':2 'redirect':5

Mention of AI used by researchers (use cases, how it can help them, etc.)

'ai':3 'case':8 'etc':14 'help':12 'mention':1 'research':6 'use':4,7

The LMSys Chatbot Arena is referenced or shown 

'arena':4 'chatbot':3 'lmsys':2 'referenc':6 'shown':8

At least one specific industry mentioned as userbase or a use case for AI tools

'ai':14 'case':12 'industri':5 'least':2 'mention':6 'one':3 'specif':4 'tool':15 'use':11 'userbas':8

Someone says "patience" or "patient" (not as a noun)

'noun':9 'patienc':3 'patient':5 'say':2 'someon':1

Altman lied about what would be featured at the event in his X posts

'altman':1 'event':10 'featur':7 'lie':2 'post':14 'would':5 'x':13

In the market creator's opinion, the average reaction to the event by journalists is "mixed" or negative

'averag':8 'creator':4 'event':12 'journalist':14 'market':3 'mix':16 'negat':18 'opinion':6 'reaction':9

Any type of new software, AI or not, usable by anyone in the United States willing to pay, is released by OpenAI on the day of the event

'ai':6 'anyon':11 'day':25 'event':28 'new':4 'openai':22 'pay':18 'releas':20 'softwar':5 'state':15 'type':2 'unit':14 'usabl':9 'will':16

In the market creator's opinion, a live demonstration of an OpenAI product is marred by a bug

'bug':18 'creator':4 'demonstr':9 'live':8 'mar':15 'market':3 'openai':12 'opinion':6 'product':13

Any of this words: "Agent", "Agents" or "Agentic" are mentioned

Sam Altman says something along the lines of “what we have now is nothing/laughable compared to what is coming later this year/next year.” 

'along':5 'altman':2 'come':19 'compar':15 'later':20 'line':7 'nothing/laughable':14 'sam':1 'say':3 'someth':4 'year':23 'year/next':22

The start of the stream is delayed at least 5 minutes

'5':10 'delay':7 'least':9 'minut':11 'start':2 'stream':5

GPT-4 becomes cheaper (API price reduced)

'-4':2 'api':5 'becom':3 'cheaper':4 'gpt':1 'price':6 'reduc':7

Presenters give away $10,000 or more in total of free stuff as part of presentation

'000':5 '10':4 'away':3 'free':11 'give':2 'part':14 'present':1,16 'stuff':12 'total':9

The official stream pictures someone wearing a mask (for COVID-19 prevention)

'-19':11 'covid':10 'mask':8 'offici':2 'pictur':4 'prevent':12 'someon':5 'stream':3 'wear':6

An OpenAI employee makes a major gaffe (in the market creator's opinion) that is featured on the front page of the New York Times

'creator':11 'employe':3 'featur':16 'front':19 'gaff':7 'major':6 'make':4 'market':10 'new':23 'openai':2 'opinion':13 'page':20 'time':25 'york':24

Something related to phone calls and ChatGPT

'call':5 'chatgpt':7 'phone':4 'relat':2 'someth':1

Any mention of deepfakes (including any reference to audio or video identity spoofing)

'audio':9 'deepfak':4 'ident':12 'includ':5 'mention':2 'refer':7 'spoof':13 'video':11

Films or the film industry (or related topics) mentioned

'film':1,4 'industri':5 'mention':9 'relat':7 'topic':8

Announcement of software that can automatically make phone calls on user's behalf

'announc':1 'automat':6 'behalf':13 'call':9 'make':7 'phone':8 'softwar':3 'user':11

Announcement of generally intelligent model using speech as input and speech as output, with no intermediate models

'announc':1 'general':3 'input':9 'intellig':4 'intermedi':16 'model':5,17 'output':13 'speech':7,11 'use':6

Greg Brockman creates a new AI voice assistant/personality during the demo and gives it a custom name

'ai':6 'assistant/personality':8 'brockman':2 'creat':3 'custom':16 'demo':11 'give':13 'greg':1 'name':17 'new':5 'voic':7

Someone says “magic” during the livestream

'livestream':6 'magic':3 'say':2 'someon':1

In general, resolution will err towards resolving things YES in ambiguous situations. If it seems like something might count according to the spirit of the answer but the letter is unclear, it will probably count. If the event is postponed, this market will be extended until the event occurs.

Prop Bets

🤖 AI

🤖 OpenAI

🖥️ Technology

'h.s':3 'kati':4 'lake':2 'seven':1 'tx':5

'h.s':2 'montgomeri':1 'nj':4 'skillman':3

'ca':5 'cupertino':4 'h.s':3 'monta':1 'vista':2

'acton':2,6 'acton-boxborough':1 'boxborough':3 'h.s':5 'ma':7 'region':4

'adlai':1 'e':2 'h.s':4 'il':6 'lincolnshir':5 'stevenson':3

'h.s':4 'nj':7 'north':5 'p':3 'plainsboro':6 'ww':2 'ww-p':1

'h.s':3 'il':5 'new':1 'trier':2 'winnetka':4

This is for Division C, or high school. Teams listed are from the Top 11 teams listed in the 2024 Scioly Nats Computer Rankings (predictions). 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bu3Pksv_KG2ADsAtcaMme7JfvhcwbRiBd3D3PmiM77w/edit#gid=1934280547

Past regional, state, invitational, and national results can be found at: 

Science Olympiad

Biology Competitions

🧪 Science

Physics Competitions

Competition Math

Any performance has to be restarted, for any reason

All four ABBA members performing on stage

'abba':3 'four':2 'member':4 'perform':5 'stage':7

An elected politician currently in office speaks

'current':4 'elect':2 'offic':6 'politician':3 'speak':7

"Palestine" is audibly said by someone with a microphone (crowd screams not enough)

'audibl':3 'crowd':10 'enough':13 'microphon':9 'palestin':1 'said':4 'scream':11 'someon':6

Someone mentions the inclusion of nations geographically outside of Europe

'europ':10 'geograph':7 'inclus':4 'mention':2 'nation':6 'outsid':8 'someon':1

'2nd':6 '2x':3 'place':7 'point':4 'winner':1

'1.5':3 '2nd':7 'place':8 'point':5 'winner':1 'x':4

A participant (i.e. not audience) eats on camera (visibly chewing, holding food, or similar)

'audienc':5 'camera':8 'chew':10 'eat':6 'food':12 'hold':11 'i.e':3 'particip':2 'similar':14 'visibl':9

At least one of the "Big five" make it to top 5

'5':12 'big':6 'five':7 'least':2 'make':8 'one':3 'top':11

Last country jury distributing their points could change position #1 (BEFORE audience votes)

'1':10 'audienc':12 'chang':8 'could':7 'countri':2 'distribut':4 'juri':3 'last':1 'point':6 'posit':9 'vote':13

NO Nordic country's jury gives 12 points to another Nordic song 

'12':7 'anoth':10 'countri':3 'give':6 'juri':5 'nordic':2,11 'point':8 'song':12

Neither Greece nor Cyprus gives other country 12 points

'12':8 'countri':7 'cyprus':4 'give':5 'greec':2 'neither':1 'point':9

All Baltic countries give 12 points to another Baltic country

'12':5 'anoth':8 'baltic':2,9 'countri':3,10 'give':4 'point':6

A second country drops out of the May 11th Finals

'11th':9 'countri':3 'drop':4 'final':10 'may':8 'second':2

8 or more artists say "thank you" in English audibly on mic just after finishing their performance

'8':1 'artist':4 'audibl':10 'english':9 'finish':15 'mic':12 'perform':17 'say':5 'thank':6

The big moving ceiling cubes/panels fuck up noticeably (one gets stuck, or lights go off, etc.)

'big':2 'ceil':4 'cubes/panels':5 'etc':16 'fuck':6 'get':10 'go':14 'light':13 'move':3 'notic':8 'one':9 'stuck':11

Another queer pride flag is brandished by a performer other than Nemo's nonbinary flag

'anoth':1 'brandish':6 'flag':4,15 'nemo':12 'nonbinari':14 'perform':9 'pride':3 'queer':2

Yet another queer pride flag is bandished by a performer other than Ireland's trans and Switzerland's nonbinary

'anoth':2 'bandish':7 'flag':5 'ireland':13 'nonbinari':19 'perform':10 'pride':4 'queer':3 'switzerland':17 'tran':15 'yet':1

Imagine by John Lennon is quoted, sung, named, or otherwise obviously referenced

'imagin':1 'john':3 'lennon':4 'name':8 'obvious':11 'otherwis':10 'quot':6 'referenc':12 'sung':7

Please only submit questions concerning the May 11 final, not semifinals or things happening outside of the final as shown on TV.

I reserve the right to resolve markets as N/A for any reason, e.g. if I feel like they're off-topic, poorly worded, et.c.

Eurovision 2024

Eurovision

Sweden

🎷 Music

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A. Please read the pinned comments and stay updated there.

Gaza

🇵🇸 Palestine

🇮🇱 Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

⚔️ Wars

This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see 

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an 

. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

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